A recent survey for the 2026 Florida governor election revealed
Republican
Representative Byron Donalds holds a slim advantage over former Representative David Jolly, who switched from being a Republican to run as a Democrat. Nonetheless, approximately one-third of voters have yet to make up their minds, and Jolly has informed
On Wednesday, he feels extremely positive about this competition.
sent emails and used the online contact forms to reach out to the Donalds campaign and the Jolly campaign.
Why It Matters
Florida zoomed toward
Republicans
In the last ten years, with the previously fluctuating state supporting the President,
Donald Trump
by two-digit margins in last year’s elections. But
Democrats
are aiming to restore competitiveness for the Sunshine State during the 2026 midterm elections, especially if support for Trump sparks a 2018-like “blue surge” in upcoming November polls. Traditionally, the president’s political party experiences seat losses in midterm elections.
The winner of the election will influence major economic and social policies in Florida, which is inhabited by over 23 million people.
What to Know
A recent poll conducted by Victory Insights shed light on how residents of Florida feel regarding a potential contest between Donalds and Jolly ahead of the primary election over a year away. The survey, which polled 600 probable voters from June 7 to June 10, 2025, indicated that a slight majority of participants favor Donalds, though numerous votes remain undecided.
According to the survey, Donalds garnered backing from 36.7 percent of participants, whereas 31.4 percent indicated they plan to vote for Jolly. Nevertheless, 31.9 percent remained undecided about whom they would support in the upcoming election.
Last week, Jolly launched his bid for governor. Before that, he was a Republican representative in the House of Representatives from 2014 to 2017, serving parts of Pinellas County. After departing
Congress
, he has
emerge as a outspoken critic of Donald Trump
and officially joined the Democratic Party earlier this year before
joining the race
.
Democrats
also featured a previous Republican as their pick for the 2022 governor election
, where former Governor Charlie Crist secured the party’s nomination but eventually lost to the Republican Party’s incumbent Governor.
Ron DeSantis
by approximately 20 points in the general election.
Ben Galbraith, a senior pollster at Victory Insights, wrote in a polling memo that while Democrats hope Jolly may be ‘more palatable to modern Republicans,” Crist’s defeat in 2022 indicates that thought process “is grounded more so in hope than in reason.”
Various surveys have similarly indicated that Republicans hold an initial advantage in the governor’s contest within the state.
A survey conducted by the James Madison Institute polled 1,200 registered Florida voters between May 5 and May 7.
displayed Donalds along with Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis heading Democratic contenders
, though by a narrower margin compared to Trump’s 2024 win in the state.
In Florida, Trump secured victory by 13 percentage points, marking the most robust Republican performance in the state in many years. In 2020, he won the state by approximately three percentage points, and by slightly more than one percentage point in 2016, when the previous president was still in office.
Barack Obama
securing victory in the state during both his 2008 and 2012 electoral runs.
The primaries are still over a year off, and it remains uncertain if figures such as DeSantis or ex-Representative
Matt Gaetz
, who is also a Republican, are
planning to join the competition
Nevertheless, Trump has already shown support for Donalds, which could provide a significant advantage in the Republican primary.
What People Are Saying
Florida’s gubernatorial contender David Jolly stated
:
The election revolves around bringing about change rather than continuing with business as usual. My priority is rallying a group of Floridians who are eager to address the long-term issues related to our cost-of-living crisis, which seems to be overlooked by other contenders. It doesn’t surprise me that current poll numbers reflect this stance; however, we’re only at the beginning stages. I remain optimistic regarding my chances in this campaign.
J. Edwin Benton, who serves as a professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, stated
last month:
“The
Democratic Party
It could become intriguing, provided that—and this is a massive if—it manages to shape up, something it hasn’t accomplished in the past four, five, or even six years. However, the potential remains, largely due to the resistance against DeSantis and Trump.
According to CBN News, Donalds appeared on their channel.
Florida Politics:
I am supported by President Donald Trump. I also have the backing of Florida’s Republican senator.
Rick Scott
I have the backing of a majority in the Republican congressional group. Our momentum is growing daily. For the past six weeks, I’ve been constantly traveling across the state, with only brief stops to fulfill my duties here in Washington.”
What Happens Next
Voters in Florida will go to the polling stations for the primary election on August 18, 2026, followed by the general election on November 3, 2026. As of now, the Cook Political Report labels this race as Securely Republican.
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