ACC tiebreaker scenarios: How Georgia Tech, Pitt, Miami can reach title game

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Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect Georgia Tech’s loss to Pittsburgh in Week 13.

Who will play for the Atlantic Coast Conference in the conference championship game will be determined in the final weeks.

Just as it should be. With just two weeks left in the 2025 college football regular season, six teams remain alive with hopes of playing in the conference championship game. That game should give the winner a berth in the College Football Playoff, barring some true chaos in the CFP rankings.

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Entering play on Saturday, Nov. 22, six teams in the conference have two losses or fewer. Four teams are tied atop the standings with one loss. However, that number will dwindle by at least one with No. 12 Georgia Tech (No. 16 CFP rankings) playing Pittsburgh at Bobby Dodd Stadium at 7 p.m. ET in Atlanta.

The Yellow Jackets and Virginia seem to be in control of their own fate. Everyone else is either hoping for help in the final weeks or could be looking at the ACC tiebreakers as the best course for them to reach the conference championship game.

The ACC championship game is scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 6, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Here’s a look at each team’s path to an ACC championship berth ahead of Week 13.

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ACC championship tiebreakers

Virginia (9-2, 6-1)

Path to ACC championship game: Beat Virginia Tech; Or Pitt loss to Miami

Virginia is in a good spot entering the final week. The Cavaliers will sit back and watch the action this week during their Week 13 bye. When they return to the field, a win over in-state rival Virginia Tech should get them to the championship game, as they could finish ahead of SMU by conference opponent winning percentage.

If Virginia loses, a Pitt loss against Miami can also give the Cavaliers a backdoor entrance into the championship game. The Cavaliers’ 35-31 loss to NC State on Sept. 6 counts as a non-conference game.

Pittsburgh (8-3, 6-1)

Path to ACC championship game: Beat Miami; And need one of SMU or Virginia to lose

Even if Pitt beats Miami, it’ll need some outside help to get to the championship game, as the Panthers lose tiebreakers to SMU and Virginia in the case of a three-way tie.

The Panthers will need either the Mustangs or the Cavaliers to lose once more in conference play in addition to winning out, to get to Charlotte.

SMU (8-3, 6-1)

Path to ACC championship game: Beat California; Or Pitt loss to Miami

SMU’s path to a second straight appearance in the conference championship game is to win against California. From there, the Mustangs will also get in with a Pitt loss to Miami.

As things stand right now, SMU would win a three-way tie with Pitt and Virginia.

Miami (8-2, 4-2)

Path to ACC championship game: Beat Pitt; And Duke loss to Wake Forest; Or Virginia Tech win over Virginia

Despite two losses, Miami is still very much alive for a spot in the ACC championship game. The Hurricanes ― despite being in the conference since 2004 ― have never won the conference.

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Miami would need to win out vs. Virginia Tech and Pitt to close out the season, but also needs the Panthers to beat Georgia Tech, Virginia to beat Virginia Tech, SMU to go 1-1 vs. Louisville and Cal, and then for UNC to topple Duke.

In the case of a two-loss logjam, Miami would get in with a four-way tiebreaker advantage over Georgia Tech, Pitt and SMU.

Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2 ACC)

Path to ACC championship game: Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech; And SMU loss to California

The Yellow Jackets blew a chance on Saturday, Nov. 22, to get into the ACC championship game. Now, Georgia Tech will need both Virginia and SMU to lose in the final weekend of the season. In that case, the Yellow Jackets would get in due to a win over a common opponent — Wake Forest — earlier in the season.

Virginia and SMU both lost to the Demon Deacons, giving the Yellow Jackets that tiebreaker in case of a three-way tie for first.

Duke (5-5, 4-2)

Path to ACC championship game: Beat Wake Forest; And Pitt loss to Miami; or SMU loss to California

If the Miami scenario was crazy, a five-loss Duke team could also still get into the ACC championship game, and potentially wreck CFP hopes for the entire conference, if the Blue Devils win the conference for the first time since 1989.

For this scenario to unfold, the Blue Devils would need to beat UNC and Wake Forest to close out their season. They would then need Pitt to beat Georgia Tech and then lose to Miami, with Louisville beating SMU.

ACC tiebreaker rules

Here’s how the ACC’s tiebreaker rules work in order, according to the conference:

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ACC Two-Team Tiebreakers

A. The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
B. Win percentage against all common opponents.
C. Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
D. Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
E. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
F. A random draw.

Three (or More) Team Tie

A. If all teams are common opponents, then the combined head-to-head win percentage is used.
B. If one team defeated or was defeated by all the others in the tiebreaker, they shall be removed at this step.
C. Win percentage against all common opponents.
D. Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
E. Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
F. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
G. A random draw.